'Climate change chaos'

storm warning issued

by Charles Strathdee

A report published by the CNA Corporation, a non-profit institution, which conducts in-depth, independent research and analysis, warns of a future world in turmoil created by climate change, in which the US military will be forced to continue its role of global policeman.

The report’s advisory board was composed of distinguished senior retired American military officers, including US Marine Corps General Anthony C. Zinni, a recent head of CENTCOM. Other members were: Admiral Frank Bowman; Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney; Admiral T. Joseph Lopez; Admiral Donald L. Pilling; Admiral Joseph W. Prueher and Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly. Although obviously heavy on naval scrambled egg, reflecting the USA’s pre-eminent status as the world’s leading maritime power, the advisory board also included four Army and Air Force generals.

In their introduction to the report the retired officers state: “During our decades of experience in the US military, we have addressed many national security challenges, from containment and deterrence of the Soviet nuclear threat during the Cold War to terrorism and extremism in recent years. Global climate change presents a new and very different type of national security challenge.“

The generals and admirals explain that in compiling the report they met with leading scientists who are experts in the field, business leaders and other people specialising in the study of climate change.  The report’s introduction declares: “Our discussions have been lively, informative, and very sobering.” It continues: “The nature and pace of climate changes being observed today and the consequences projected by the consensus scientific opinion are grave and pose equally grave implications for our national security. Moving beyond the arguments of cause and effect, it is important that the US military begin planning to address these potentially devastating effects. The consequences of climate change can affect the organisation, training, equipping, and planning of the military services. The US military has a clear obligation to determine the potential impacts of climate change on its ability to execute its missions in support of national security objectives.”

As an imperial power, the USA today clearly has an obligation to be the world’s policeman, as the best means of safeguarding its own security and the admirals and generals state in their introduction: “Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security challenges for the United States. Accordingly, it is appropriate to start now to help mitigate the severity of some of these emergent challenges. The decision to act should be made soon in order to plan prudently for the nation’s security. The increasing risks from climate change should be addressed now because they will almost certainly get worse if we delay.”

In a no-holds barred Executive Summary the report provides more details on the nature of the threats to American national, and hence world, security. Included in the ‘Findings’ is the assertion that ‘extreme weather events, drought, flooding, sea level rise, retreating glaciers, habitat shifts, and the increased spread of life-threatening diseases’ will potentially create chaos. It continues: ‘On the simplest level, it has the potential to create sustained natural and humanitarian disasters on a scale far beyond those we see today.’

With living conditions in many countries belonging to the Middle Eastern, African and Asian regions eroding dramatically, the report forecasts the USA and her allies will be drawn into providing humanitarian aid and disaster relief, to avoid the situations being ‘exploited by extremists.’ It adds:  ‘The US may also be called upon to undertake stability and reconstruction efforts once a conflict has begun, to avert further disaster and reconstitute a stable environment.’ Continuing its plague years theme, the report warns that even areas of the world currently regarded as stable may be plunged into turmoil by climate change.

It says: ‘The US and Europe may experience mounting pressure to accept large numbers of immigrant and refugee populations as drought increases and food production declines in Latin America and Africa. Extreme weather events and natural disasters, as the US experienced with Hurricane Katrina, may lead to increased missions for a number of US agencies, including state and local governments, the Department of Homeland Security, and our already stretched military, including our Guard and Reserve forces.’

The world’s continuing dependency on oil is of great concern to the generals and admirals: ‘Climate change, national security, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges.’ They state in the Executive Summary. ‘As President Bush noted in his 2007 State of the Union speech, dependence on foreign oil leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes and terrorists, and clean domestic energy alternatives help us confront the serious challenge of global climate change. Because the issues are linked, solutions to one affect the other. Technologies that improve energy efficiency also reduce carbon intensity and carbon emissions.’

To avoid complete disaster in a future shaped by climate change the retired officers put forward their own recommendations for action. They suggest: Dealing with the threats thrown up by climate change should be incorporated into both national security and defence strategies; the USA should play a bigger role at both national and international level in helping to
‘stabilise climate change at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global security and stability’; the USA should also enter partnerships with Third World nations to help them manage the impact of climate change; future and present US military capabilities should become more energy efficient.

The admirals and generals also recommend: ‘The Department of Defense should conduct an assessment of the impact on US military installations worldwide of rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other projected climate change impacts over the next 30 to 40 years.’

A US Marine conducts counter-insurgency in urban areas training, a mission American troops will tackle for years to come.
Photo: USMC.

Shape of things to come: A US Navy helicopter drops in humanitarian aid on the Solomon Islands last month in the wake of an 8.1 magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami. Photo: US Navy.

Now and into the future, the USA must lead the way in establishing global security. Here, the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group and the French Navy’s Combined Task Force 473 steam together in the Arabian Sea. Photo: US Navy.

• A more in-depth look at the CAN report will be carried in future editions of WARSHIPS IFR.