SPECIAL REPORT –MULTIPLE THREATS FOR NATO – In a Future World of Trouble

• THE FIVE THREATS
• Failed states
• Non-state actors
• Proliferation of WMD 
• Growing demand for energy
• Climate change

By WARSHIPS IFR
Special Correspondent

NATO needs to enhance its military capabilities and adapt its policies to meet evolving security challenges in a world facing unprecedented perils, according to the organisation’s Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. The dangers posed by climate change, terrorism and weapons proliferation will provide NATO with its biggest challenges yet, de Hoop Scheffer told delegates to a Security and Defence Agenda (SDA) convention in Brussels last month (June) under the heading ‘NATO: The Next Decade’. He said: “I cannot accurately predict where we will be operating in ten years from now but I am convinced that we will be at least as busy as we are today.  NATO will continue to be defined by its operations: Operations that are likely to include the full spectrum, from peacekeeping all the way to combat. And so we must ensure that we can deliver in all possible circumstances. Enhancing our operational performance is a matter of both hardware and software. With respect to hardware, we know pretty well what we need: More strategic and tactical airlift; command and control; surveillance; missile defence; NBC defence; increased usability of our forces; better co-ordination of Special Operations Forces. I am not harbouring any illusions. There will never come a moment when we will be 100 per cent satisfied with our progress in any of these areas, but we must maintain the focus on our military transformation. Whether today or ten years from now, there is simply no substitute for NATO’s military competence.” The Secretary General addressed five major threat arenas likely to involve NATO over the coming decade: Failed states; the growing power of non-state actors; the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and their delivery means; the growing demand for energy and, finally, climate change.  On his first point, de Hoop Scheffer said that the current failed state index of the US journal ‘Foreign Policy’ lists 32 countries. The NATO Secretary General observed: “Even if that number turns out to be too high, and even if not every failing state becomes a massive security problem for the rest of the world, the message is clear: The problem of ungoverned spaces - that is, of areas that can be safe havens for terrorism, organised crime, and all sorts of other illicit and unwelcome activities - is not going to go away in the next decade. And at least in some cases, outside intervention will be necessary to avert greater damage.” Of the growing power of non-state actors, de Hoop Scheffer said: “Globalisation brings incredible opportunities, yet it also has its dark spots. One is that it empowers fanatical individuals, by giving them access to enormously destructive means. I am not thinking of a nuclear 9-11, but a terrorist attack with a radiological weapon certainly can no longer be considered science fiction. Last year’s cyber attack against Estonia demonstrated that an attack against another country does not necessarily have to entail the use of military force. For non-state actors in particular, there are other options available.”

With regard to the third threat listed the NATO chief told delegates that programmes in Iran and North Korea lay at the heart of current anxieties in the West but were not the only problem areas in the nuclear proliferation arena. He stated: “Even if we find a satisfactory solution in these two cases, the spread of technology and knowledge is going to continue. It is, after all, part and parcel of globalisation. Moreover, the scarcity of fossil fuels is already leading to a renaissance of civilian nuclear energy - and this poses its very own proliferation problems.” The Secretary General also warned, “the next decade will see continuously rising energy prices and a scramble for energy resources. This trend will become even more distinct in the coming decade, when the dynamic economies of China and India will need to import ever increasing amounts of oil and gas. This will put a premium on energy security. And it will also put a premium on the political stability of the world’s major oil and gas producing countries.” The Secretary General’s assessment of climate change was equally frank: “Changes in the global climate are already visible today, notably in the High North [Arctic]. They are widely expected to become more pronounced and visible elsewhere. And that will have security implications. It will sharpen the competition over resources, notably water; it will increase the risks to coastal regions; it will provoke disputes over territory and farming land; it will spur migration; and it will make fragile states even more fragile. Simply put, climate change could confront us with a whole range of unpleasant developments; developments which no single nation-state has the power to contain.” The Alliance’s ability to meet its obligations will depend largely on its military effectiveness. The NATO chief went on: “In addition to making sure that we can meet operational requirements, we also need to move forward on missile defence, cyber defence, and energy security. Regarding missile defence, our recent Bucharest Summit has provided us with a clear roadmap for the future. We agreed that the proliferation of missiles is a growing threat and that the US defence system should be an integral part of any future NATO-wide architecture. Based on this, we are now examining options for comprehensive missile defence architecture, to be reviewed at our next Summit in 2009. Regarding cyber defence, we not only have a Cyber Policy in place now, but we have also created a Centre of Excellence, fittingly located in Estonia’s capital, Tallinn.” De Hoop Scheffer emphasised that military capability must go hand in hand with the political process, in order to meet and overcome the numerous challenges that lie ahead. While stressing that it was not NATO’s ambition to become a ‘globo-cop’, de Hoop Scheffer said it was important the Alliance continued to work in partnership with others, stating: “Our mission in Afghanistan has led to co-operation with partners from all over the world. In short, NATO acts increasingly together with other countries, no matter where they are located on the globe. I believe that the next decade will show that our co-operation in Afghanistan has not been a singular event, but a model for the future. And so it is both legitimate, and timely, for us to invest in these partnerships.

They are essential to the way we must operate if we are to meet global challenges. In meeting today’s and tomorrow’s security challenges, success will crucially depend on close co-ordination between the major international actors - the UN, the EU, the World Bank, NGOs, to name but a few. This means that our planning in NATO must take these other players into account. It also means that they must be better aware of what NATO can and cannot do. Above all, it means that we need to develop a much more structured relationship among the key international actors. The NATO-UN Declaration, which we hope to be able to sign very soon, will be an important step towards such a new quality of institutional relationships.” It was hoped that there would be substantially more co-operation and mutual support between NATO and the EU, with more pooling of capabilities, especially in areas such as transport and helicopters, or in research and development, or in harmonising force structures and training methods. Taking a broader view of what the next decade holds for NATO, de Hoop Scheffer stated: “Some have been arguing that the next decade will witness the end of the global preponderance of North America and Europe. They argue that the rise of other global players will inevitably reduce the relative power of the transatlantic community. I will leave that for the pundits to argue. I would simply say that, even a decade from now, the ability of the transatlantic community to rally others behind a common objective - and therefore to attain that objective - will remain absolutely unique.  Even ten years from today, no other group of nations will co-operate more closely among each other. Nor will there be any other group that can generate a similar kind of ‘magnetism’ in terms of promoting political and security co-operation. And no other group of nations will have the institutional toolkit that is essential to facilitate such co-operation - and the best tool is NATO.”

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. Photo: NATO.

Alliance on patrol: The Canadian fleet support ship HMCS Protecteur exercises with a German mine warfare vessel in the Mediterranean during May 2008. Photo: Canadian DND.

Tip of the spear: A US Marine Corps officer talks to friendly locals in Helmand Province, Afghanistan this summer. The American marines are the tip of spear in NATO’s effort to balance war-fighting against the Taliban and winning hearts and minds among the local population. Photo: USMC