WEB SPECIAL - Spratlys

SPRATLYS

Deputy Editor Anthony Tucker-Jones assesses the risk of war in the South China Sea as China and ASEAN once again fall out over the troubled Spratly Islands.

Photos: Filipino marines on a counter-terrorist exercise (USN image); An American destroyer arrives alongside in Danang, Vietnam (USN image).

The elderly British cruiser HMS York, sunk at Crete. Photo: Goodman Collection.

IIt all seemed so harmless, a boat full of Vietnamese day trippers visiting some obscure coral atolls - unfortunately they just happened to be the most contested reefs in the whole of the South China Sea. This incident has now re-ignited a territorial dispute, which could once again become a military flashpoint in Southeast Asia.

The squabbling over ownership of the Spratly Islands is a long running story, but over the past year China, Taiwan and Vietnam have been upping the ante. In the space of just two months they have managed to wreck the delicate diplomatic progress of the last few years.

The dispute is potentially serious because it involves not only the three protagonists mentioned above, but also Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, in other words most of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The situation could easily flare up into fighting and has done so in the past. China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam already defiantly garrison a number of the 'islands.'

Significantly Vietnam controls three times the number of islets and reefs compared to the others. After a spate of recent provocation it seems the code of conduct signed by ASEAN in 2002, intended to avoid any action that could heighten tension, has been torn up. Although the Spratly archipelago is little more than several hundred islets, rocky outcrops and reefs, crucially they are believed to sit on top of large reserves of oil and natural gas. Additionally they straddle some of the region's main shipping lanes and fishing grounds. Rising oil prices have not helped ease tension. Energy hungry China, which in recent months has instigated serious power cuts, is determined to secure its share of the Spratlys' wealth. The actions of PetroChina, China's leading oil producer, prompted a protest from the Philippines as recently as July 2004, claiming the company was conducting exploratory work much too near the contested islands.

The previous month, the Taiwanese cabinet was calling for clarification of Taiwan's national boundaries to include the Spratly and Pratas islands. To complicate matters the latter are also claimed by China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

To enforce its claim on the Spratlys the Taiwanese military maintain bases on Dongsha and Nansha islands. In May the Vietnamese started work on a small airport on Truong Sa Lon (Large Spratly) which is expected to be completed by the end of this year. Vietnamese sources claim the 600m runway is purely designed to support tourist flights.

The greatest risk of armed conflict is between China, Taiwan and Vietnam who all lay claim to the islands in their entirety. Vietnam insists it has 'indisputable sovereignty' over both the Spratly and Parcel Islands. The precise number of Vietnamese personnel stationed on the 21 Spratly reefs it controls is a well-guarded secret. As far as China is concerned Vietnam is the villain and a long history of bad blood exists between them.

They fought a land war in 1979 and their navies clashed in 1988 (at Johnson Reef, resulting in the deaths of 78 Vietnamese sailors) and again in 1992.

Vietnamese troops spent a decade in Cambodia fighting the Chinese-backed Khmer Rouge guerrillas after deposing Pol Pot's murderous regime in 1979. China though, is not as innocent as it claims, having seized the Parcel Islands to the north of the Spratlys, from Vietnam in 1976.

At the beginning of 2004, China and Taiwan warned Hanoi not to violate their maritime territorial sovereignty, after Vietnam announced its intention to send tourists under the auspices of its Ministry of Defence to the islands in April. In the case of Taiwan this was simply sour grapes.

Taiwan occupies the largest islet, Taiping, and in March the garrison erected what it euphemistically called a 'bird-watching' tower on a nearby reef, resulting in protest from Vietnam.

According to a Taiwanese source, Taiwan recently replaced its marines stationed on the Spratly and Pratas Islands with armed coast guards - perhaps in an effort to appear less confrontational.

The Philippines also ruffled feathers earlier in the year when almost 5,000 Filipino troops and US Marines took part in exercise Balikatan in the western province of Palawan not far from the Spratlys. The Chinese and Vietnamese took a keen interest in the amphibious beach landing exercises.

The Philippines controls eight of the Spratlys and have also complained about Vietnam's actions. In reality these manoeuvres were really about preparing the Philippine military to combat the remaining Abu Sayyaf guerrillas who are linked to Al-Qaeda. Without US assistance it is unlikely that the Philippines could conduct any sustained maritime operations in the South China Sea.

On first impressions it would appear that China's South Sea Fleet at Zhanjiang, with major bases at Yulin, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong,could easily dominate the whole Spratly archipelago. The nearest are just 70km north of Hong Kong and Chinese forces are camped on seven of the disputed reefs. Nonetheless, while the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) looks quite formidable on paper, its actual capabilities are another matter. The modernisation of its surface combatant fleet has been slow and it has done little to enhance its amphibious warfare forces or perhaps, just as importantly, its mine counter-measure capability.

Similarly, although the Spratlys are only a two day boat trip from Vietnam, its Navy and Coast Guard remain small and under funded. Taiwan, in contrast, has, in recent years, procured a number of fairly new American and French frigates and destroyers, and Malaysia is also procuring a fleet of small frigates. The latter currently occupies three Spratly reefs. It is clear that tourists and 'bird-watching' towers are blatant attempts by Vietnam and Taiwan to reinforce their claims to the islands. Vietnam has made it clear that it intends to send more tourists to the islands, something that China is unlikely to take quietly. A war in the South China Sea would be disastrous for international trade, as 50 per cent of merchant tonnage and 30 per cent of crude oil shipments pass by the Spratlys. With ASEAN seeking to settle its members differences, a workable solution is unlikely to be forthcoming, which means at some stage a limited shooting match in the region is more than probable.